热度 22
2012-10-3 21:40
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Last week, the news that Texas Instruments plans to refocus its successful OMAP applications processor to target embedded applications—all but abandoning future smartphone and tablet sockets, despite some notable design wins—caught many people off guard. But not Will Strauss, principal analyst at Forward Concepts Inc. Back in November 2010, Strauss identified the trend that would lead to TI's strategic shift, and wrote about it in his monthly newsletter—the future of applications processors involved integrated base band, and TI had a decision to make. Back then, Strauss reported that OMAP was the leader in 3G cell phone apps processor shipments, but that Qualcomm was already nipping at its heels with the Snapdragon communications processor, which offered both an applications processor and cellular modem on the same die. Strauss predicted that combo chips that integrated both apps processor and modem would make up nearly three-quarters of applications processor shipments by 2014. TI had already all but exited the cellular modem business, pledging only to continue shipments to Nokia. Now TI had to make a choice—jump back into cellular modems with both feet in order to remain competitive down the road with OMAP for smartphones and tablets, or prepare to change strategies. Strauss, pointing out that Intel had recently bought its way back into the cellular base band market by acquiring the wireless chip unit of Infineon, noted that Nvidia was in a similar situation—Nvidia had the promising Tegra apps processor, but no base band. "Both companies are big enough to buy one of the few remaining modem houses, should they decide to take that route," Strauss wrote at the time. Strauss singled out Icera Semiconductor as the most attractive modem maker left. Nvidia bought Icera for $367 million a few months later. TI, having tired of the base band business after being undercut on price by MediaTek and others, had no intention of reversing its field. And the rest is history. While Intel and Nvidia were willing to ante up to add base band capability as table stakes to get into the game for future smartphone and tablet sockets, TI choose the low road. Nvidia is now offering both Tegra and the Icera base band chips, and plans to start shipping a version with both integrated on the same die next year. Strauss believes Intel will ultimately put either Atom or a successor on the same die with the base band, but he suspects it won't happen until at least 2014. A foregone conclusion According to Strauss, the inevitability of re-focusing OMAP has been a foregone conclusion by at least some people within TI for some time. In his remarks on the strategy earlier this week, Greg Delagi, TI's senior vice president for embedded processing, stressed that the company had been shifting RD investments in OMAP for several years in preparation for this move. He insisted that TI had not been caught "flat-footed" by the market trends. The primary reason for the change cited by Delgai is also relevant. Apple and Samsung are the dominant players in smartphones and tablets, and they make their own applications processors. That leaves a smaller pie for the likes of TI, Qualcomm, Nvidia and Intel. But as has been pointed out by analysts and others, that smaller pie is not that small, and TI may suffer as its roughly $900 million in annual revenue from OMAP and connectivity chips in smartphones and tablets declines along with its RD investment. But, according to Strauss, without the base band capability, TI wasn't going to be able to hang on to the smartphone and tablet sockets it has for much longer. "The clear trend is towards an integrated base band," Strauss said in an interview this week. This is by no means the end of the line for OMAP. As Delagi stressed, OMAP has a real opportunity to grow share in the $18 billion embedded processor market, where there are many more customers, but smaller volumes. TI can also leverage its strength in analogue to improve its position in embedded processing, where the company already claims 12 per cent market share and the No. 2 position. "It's a reasonable market for them," Straus said. "It's really they only approach they've got. That can be a profitable product line. It just won't be a 1 billion unit product line."