标签: predictions

One thing that differentiates humans from other animals, as far as we know, is that we are fascinated with the future. I'm not talking about predictions for tomorrow's weather, or even next week's, I am talking about years in advance. Let's face it: fortune tellers, soothsayers, and crystal balls are an established part of human history, except now it is known as market research and reports.   Cerainly, it's sometimes possible to make such predictions with a reasonable level of confidence, such as when it is demographic-related. But in the technology world, any prediction more than a few years ahead should be viewed as note much more than a sophisticated guess.   That's why I was surprised to see a market report about the analog market in 2020. While I am interested in almost everything analog, seems to me that you might as well cast bones or roll dice when you try to say who , what, where, and how much the analog market (or any market) will look like a decade ahead.   There are two reasons for this: first, since such predictions are largely extrapolations, any small misassumption or error in initial data points will translate into a major miss. It's the classic trajectory and targeting problem when you start on a long journey: being off even slightly in your initial position, or a fraction of a degree in your heading, results in missing your objective by hundreds of miles (barring any mid-course correction, of course).   Second, by definition, such predictions can't account for disruptive technologies or market shifts. For example, the market for vacuum tubes look very different in 1946 than it did in five years later, a period during which the transistor was born and began commercialization. Similarly, the development of the monolithic integrated circuit (IC) changed electronics in terms of components, applications, and . . . . well, absolutely everything.   Lest you think that I am just sniping at those who make such long-term predictions, I too have been guilty of the same, though much more informally. I clearly recall when the USB standard was introduced in 1994, I was pretty sure about its prospects: "yeah, just what we need, yet another interface standard" and "seems kind of foolish, just to replace the keyboard and mouse connections in a PC."   We know how that turned out. USB is an extremely important and common interface, now going into USB 3.0, and with lots of industry support at hardware, software, end-product, and applications levels. Regardless of what you think about its technical virtues, it's clearly been a winner, and I was 100% wrong. (Don't forget, any attempt at using it higher-speed USB was supposed to be overwhelmed by IEEE-1394, aka Firewire). USB is now even used just as a basic 5V power source, which didn't seem to be a rationale for it when it was developed.   I'm not embarrassed; most long-range predictions are barely "roughly right." To quote Yogi Berra, whose many sayings have more real-world experience and sensibility than you'll get from a room of erudite philosophy professors: "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Just check out the 1950 science-fiction movie Destination Moon which attempted to be technically sound, and compare it with the reality which occurred less than 20 years later—and you've realize that humility when making predictions is a very good idea!   So take a moment and think: what are some of the technology and market predictions which you made to your friends, and which turned out to be wrong—regardless of reason they did so? What things succeeded which you were sure would fail, or vice versa?   Go ahead, reflect back and then admit to it!    

One thing that differentiates humans from other animals, as far as we know, is that we are fascinated with the future. I'm not talking about predictions for tomorrow's weather, or even next week's, I am talking about years in advance. Let's face it: fortune tellers, soothsayers, and crystal balls are an established part of human history, except now it is known as market research and reports.   Cerainly, it's sometimes possible to make such predictions with a reasonable level of confidence, such as when it is demographic-related. But in the technology world, any prediction more than a few years ahead should be viewed as note much more than a sophisticated guess.   That's why I was surprised to see a market report about the analogue market in 2020. While I am interested in almost everything analogue, seems to me that you might as well cast bones or roll dice when you try to say who , what, where, and how much the analogue market (or any market) will look like a decade ahead.   There are two reasons for this: first, since such predictions are largely extrapolations, any small misassumption or error in initial data points will translate into a major miss. It's the classic trajectory and targeting problem when you start on a long journey: being off even slightly in your initial position, or a fraction of a degree in your heading, results in missing your objective by hundreds of miles (barring any mid-course correction, of course).   Second, by definition, such predictions can't account for disruptive technologies or market shifts. For example, the market for vacuum tubes look very different in 1946 than it did in five years later, a period during which the transistor was born and began commercialization . Similarly, the development of the monolithic integrated circuit (IC) changed electronics in terms of components, applications, and . . . . well, absolutely everything.   Lest you think that I am just sniping at those who make such long-term predictions, I too have been guilty of the same, though much more informally. I clearly recall when the USB standard was introduced in 1994, I was pretty sure about its prospects: "yeah, just what we need, yet another interface standard" and "seems kind of foolish, just to replace the keyboard and mouse connections in a PC."   We know how that turned out. USB is an extremely important and common interface, now going into USB 3.0, and with lots of industry support at hardware, software, end-product, and applications levels. Regardless of what you think about its technical virtues, it's clearly been a winner, and I was 100% wrong. (Don't forget, any attempt at using it higher-speed USB was supposed to be overwhelmed by IEEE-1394, aka Firewire). USB is now even used just as a basic 5V power source, which didn't seem to be a rationale for it when it was developed.   I'm not embarrassed; most long-range predictions are barely "roughly right." To quote Yogi Berra, whose many sayings have more real-world experience and sensibility than you'll get from a room of erudite philosophy professors: "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Just check (cheque for banks) out the 1950 science-fiction movie Destination Moon which attempted to be technically sound, and compare it with the reality which occurred less than 20 years later—and you've realise that humility when making predictions is a very good idea!   So take a moment and think: what are some of the technology and market predictions which you made to your friends, and which turned out to be wrong—regardless of reason they did so? What things succeeded which you were sure would fail, or vice versa?   Go ahead, reflect back and then admit to it!