原创 Will the Gulf Oil Spill Contaminate India’s Energy Future?

Travelling in India over the last 10 days, I have been struck by the ebullience of the Indian people and the economy. India’s growth engine is in full gear and the economy is surging forward. Coming from the U.S., where the news is dominated by difficult issues of unemployment, soaring debt, and a weak economic recovery – and of course the Gulf oil spill, India’s news coverage seems void of these issues, and almost refreshing. It is a story of large deals, 34 percent year over year growth in car sales, booming housing and infrastructure construction, and a resurgent confidence in the capabilities of India Inc. and the Indian people. Yet, it is somewhat disquieting that there is almost a complete lack of coverage or interest in the Gulf oil spill. After all, the thought goes, the issue is of regional and geographic importance, but has little to do with India – other than the need to feel properly sympathetic.

There are often events that have limited real impact at a national level, but become defining moments as they change societal perception, awareness, and behavior. Incumbent industry leaders have great political power and are generally able to thwart any movement that negatively impacts them. However, certain events – such as Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, can deal a severe blow to the incumbent industry, far beyond what could have been predicted on the basis of actual damage done. As a result of these accidents, new nuclear plant starts in most parts of the world slowed virtually to zero, and the nuclear industry became a shadow of what it was in the late 1970’s. The Gulf oil spill has the potential to similarly transform the oil industry. One can argue that the Exxon Valdez oil spill did nothing to dampen the growth of the oil industry. That was a different time when there were no alternative solutions possible in the near term, and where the damage was well contained in a sparsely populated area in the U.S.

The recent oil spill is a potential game changer. At first glance, the immediate economic impact seems to be manageable – there was almost no impact on oil prices, and the estimated $30-50 billion in spill containment costs, will be covered by BP and/or the U.S. tax payer. Further, pictures of birds coated in oil have been seen before, and it almost appears that people have become insensitive to these images. However, several things can make this a defining moment. With explosive growth in the number of deep water wells, and the oil industry’s inability to control the situation, it shows the possibility of a runaway disaster that can pollute the waters for years. The impact on the pristine beaches of the Gulf, the ecologically fragile Louisiana marshes, and the wildlife living in that part of the world, will be immense and long lasting. This is in the U.S. economic mainstream, and fishermen and shrimpers will lose their livelihood and an already battered region could collapse. The oil pollution is already being picked up by the Gulf Stream and raises the question of how soon could the oil reach the Atlantic coast, even Europe.

While these are bad things, they’ve opened up the discussion about climate change, carbon emissions, and alternative energy. For the first time the energy industry appears vulnerable, and public opinion is willing to be convinced of an alternative plan, and may commit to efforts to find such an alternative. The license to drill for oil in deep waters is likely to run into severe opposition. An environmental protection fund to cover clean-up costs is likely, and will result in a tax on deep water oil. For the first time, the U.S. political process may have the popular support it needs to drive through changes that will permanently weaken the oil lobby. Given that many of the alternative energy technologies, such as biofuels, wind, and solar, are approaching price parity, modest incentives may be sufficient to stimulate the growth of these sectors. This can create the long-term shift in trajectory that is the only way that true transformative change occurs.

So should India care? The overall impact of the Gulf oil spill on oil prices and availability over the next decade is likely to be modest. However, if India is to become an economic and technology leader, it needs to pay attention to these shifts, and understand how the next wave of energy companies may permanently reduce the world’s dependence on oil.

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