原创 ASML: We won't be fooled again

When the semiconductor industry began the migrated from 200-mm wafers to 300-mm wafers more than a decade ago, chip makers convinced tool suppliers to foot the bill for the R&D required to make the move with the promise that they would be justly and richly rewarded with robust sales of the new systems, which much of the industry appeared anxious to adopt. But they were left holding the bag when the dot come bubble burst and—surprise—chip makers decided to delay deployment of 300-mm capacity.

Many equipment industry executives were understandably bitter about this. This was in large part the reason that, when chip makers first began making noise about moving to 450-mm wafers a few years ago, the sound you heard was mostly echos and crickets chirping.

A lot of people were skeptical right from the beginning that 450-mm would happen at all. Now it appears that 450-mm is inevitable, though the conventional wisdom holds that only a handful of chip makers—notably Intel Corp., Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (TSMC) and Globalfoundries Inc.—will ever build 450-mm manufacturing lines.

Still, right from the start, there has been much debate about how tool suppliers and their customers would divvy up the R&D costs associated with moving to the new wafer size. (Bob Johnson of Gartner Inc. said this week that the cumulative cost of 450-mm development will be about $17 billion, about $2 billion of which is being spent this year, though he acknowledged that other estimates vary widely).

Some fledgling development efforts are now well underway, including the Global 450 Consortium, a $4.8 billion collaborative effort housed at the Albany NanoTech Complex and backed by the companies mentioned above, as well as IBM Corp.

For some tool makers, though, this was not enough. ASML Holding NV, the dominant player in lithography equipment, was largely seen dragging its feet on 450-mm. Moving to 450-mm will require new lithography equipment with more advanced stages that can support the increased size and weight without creating vibrations that would make accurate lithography exposure impossible. Given the fact that no more than a handful of chip makers are expected to buy the new tools, ASML foresaw a limited return on the considerable investment that would be required.

ASML of course has now come around, but only after the firm devised an innovative equity-plus-research funding scheme that asks those chip makers with the most to gain from the move to 450-mm wafers—and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography that matter—to foot some of the bill for new technology up front.

Last week, Intel announced it would acquire a 15 percent stake in ASML as part of a $4.1 billion deal to accelerate the development of 450-mm and EUV lithography. In addition to paying over $3 billion for the stake in ASML, Intel is also contributing more than $1 billion more directly to the development of the new technologies. Intel, of course, also committed to advanced purchase orders for 450-mm and EUV development and production tools.

Samsung, TSMC must pony up
ASML is willing to sell another 10 percent of the company to other chip makers who are willing to kick in for the development of 450-mm litho tools and EUV. The firm is currently in discussions with both Samsung and TSMC on taking a piece of the action. If those firms decline to participate, or agree to participate but don't collectively buy the entire 10 percent remaining that ASML is willing to sell, ASML will invite others to participate. (As a condition imposed by ASML, Intel's stake in the company is limited to a maximum of 15 percent.)

The whole thing is not unlike a waiter bringing the check before serving the meal. But it had to be this way. ASML was not going to put out the investment required on 450-mm without money up front. And owing to its dominant market share in leading-edge lithography tools, there will be no 450-mm chip production without ASML.

Intel has the most to gain from the move to 450-mm. Stacy Smith, the company's chief financial officer, said this week that it expects the move to 450-mm to save the company more than $10 billion in manufacturing costs. Still, Intel alone takes ASML up on its offer, its deep pockets will no doubt also benefit rivals who will then get access to 450-mm and EUV lithography tools.

That's where the 15 percent stake comes in. Even if Intel is the only chip firm to directly support ASML's development of these technologies, the world's biggest chip maker will get a piece of the action every time a rival pulls out its checkbook to buy one of the new tools. In the words of a spokesman for ASML, Intel now has real skin in the game and even more interest in seeing the development of these technologies succeed.

Whether Samsung, TSMC or any other chip vendor takes ASML up on its offer remains to be seen. On one hand, it can be argued, there is little incentive for them to do so at this point. Especially now that Intel has put its money where its mouth is, there is little doubt that ASML will develop 450-mm tools (though for EUV, the case is far from closed). Once ASML has the tools available, they will presumably be happy to sell them to Samsung, TSMC and anyone else who wants them and has the means to pay.

But Samsung and TSMC would be wise to pony up and get involved. When 450-mm tools become available, the leading-edge chip makers will want them ASAP. While there is no publicly disclosed intent to give Intel right of first refusal on new tools—other than those Intel has already committed to buying—come sense dictates that you take care of any part owners of your company before shopping them to the general public. If Samsung and TSMC don't get in on the ground floor (first floor?), they may end up waiting until Intel is pretty sure it has all of the tools it wants before they get their hands on any.

Also, Intel's 15 percent stake in ASML—as well as any stake Samsung and TSMC may take—is in non-voting shares. But again, common sense dictates that the customer who is helping to foot the bill for the development of the technology will have a louder voice when it's time to make development decisions. Samsung, TSMC and any other firm that does not get in on the action may find itself outside looking in.