原创 Intel could succeed, even if Utrabooks fail

One of the more interesting trends emphasized in IHS iSuppli's Ultrabook sales forecast cut last week is this: OEMs are re-casting at least some notebooks formerly called Ultrabooks as "ultrathins" instead.

Why? Intel has some pretty stringent specifications for thickness, weight, performance and battery life for anything given the Ultrabook label (which Intel had trademarked). Hitting those specs while at the same time trying to bring down the cost of the systems is the entire crux of the issue.

According to IHS analyst Craig Stice, as OEMs find that they can't hit all of Intel's specs while also bringing down the price, they are choosing to reclassify some systems as ultrathins. The concept of the systems is the same—thin form factor, light, fast and efficient.

Despite cutting his forecast for Ultrabook sales for this year and next year, Stice believes Ultrabook shipments will grow nicely over the next few years, increasing from about 10 million this year to more than 95 million in 2016. But Stice acknowledges that the entire Ultrabook label might fall by the wayside if OEMs decide that the only way to get these ultra-thin, ultra-light systems down to price points that consumers find palatable is to come up short of the Ultrabook specifications.

"In the near term, there is the Ultrabook push because that's the buzz word," Stice said. "But at some point, does the Ultrabook name fade away?"

In fact, Stice said his latest forecast predicts this trend to some degree. He projects that growth in Ultrabook shipments will level off at about 95 million units, partly because of an expected rise in shipments of systems classified as ultrathins. At a certain point, you have to assume that even if this concept catches on as Intel hopes it will, consumers will be less concerned about whether the thin, light-weight notebook they want to buy is considered an Ultrabook or something else.

But such a development would not be a loss for Intel. On the contrary, even if the company's Ultrabook push results in the rise of something else called an ultrathin, it's still a win for Intel.

"They are still selling chips," Stice said.

The real challenge
Intel would probably prefer that everyone buys an Ultrabook or four. But, according to Stice, the goal of Intel's Ultrabook push is to re-invent the PC in order to bring to consumers the type of features and functionality—like touchscreen—that is currently the domain of non-traditional types of computers like smartphones and tablets.

If ultrathins take off and Ultrabooks flame out, the mission is still accomplished.

"I give Intel a lot of credit for what they are trying to do," Stice said. "They realize that the standard cookie-cutter type of a notebook that we've seen for the past decade was falling short of being competitive with all of these new ultra-mobile gadgets."

Of course, the real challenge for Ultrabooks, no matter how they are categorized, is competing with those ultra-mobile gadgets. Today's consumer seems very willing to part with a few hundred dollars for a smartphone or tablet in exchange for the functionality they provide. They also seem comfortable paying a few hundred dollars for the type of cookie-cutter notebook ubiquitous today.

Whether consumers on a large scale will prove willing to pay significantly more for something that melds the mobile experience with something more akin to that of a traditional PC is another matter. Particularly if that significantly more stays around $1,000.

"The challenge is creating ultra-competitive new computing gadgets in a price range that seems to be more attractive today's consumer," Stice said.